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November Numbers Continue to Paint Painful Picture of Manufacturing

The one bright spot is that many input prices appear to be coming down



Manufacturing’s decline in November marked the fourth consecutive month the sector failed to grow, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management.

ISM’s index for manufacturing, the PMI, fell to 36.2 percent in November, a decline of almost 3 points and the lowest reading since May 1982. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding while a reading below 50 indicates a general contraction.

Lower input prices are the one piece of good news for manufacturers. ISM’s price index dropped to 25.5 in November, the lowest reading since May 1949. Almost 60 percent of those surveyed reported paying lower prices while only 8 percent said they paid higher prices.

Only two segments of the industry reported growth in November: apparel, leather and allied products; and paper products. And export orders - which helped prop up much of the manufacturing industry with 70 consecutive months of growth – contracted for the second month in a row.

“Order backlogs have fallen to the lowest level since ISM began tracking the backlog of orders index in January 1993,” said Norbert Ore, chair of the institute’s manufacturing business survey committee.

Other highlights include:

*The index for new orders fell 4.3 points to 27.9 percent, which marked the 12th straight month of decline

*The customer inventories index has stayed above 50 percent for four consecutive months, a sign that manufacturers believe their customers have too much inventory


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